Tuesday, 21 December 2021

Decision Analysis - Pros and cons framework is not best for decision making

Pros and cons (for and against list) seems to be used universally. While it might be better than nothing, it has some flaws. Typically users resort to pros and cons when they are stuck and have to make a decision, should they choose A or B or maybe between A, B, C and D.

What typically happens is that pros and cons user will write a pro for A, then that pro will be used as a con for B, pros for B will be used as cons for A and so on. Users tend to look at the problem from a subjective vantage point which makes perspective narrow and from experience it can invite emotive points on to the list. Emotions might have a place on the list given the right context, however they need to be framed correctly. Once the user has written everything down, the user can review the pros, cons and the relevant weights against these points and then decide on the “right” outcome.

I do not know about you, I was frequently underwhelmed by the effectiveness of this method. As by the end of it I was not in a much better place than when I had started. I think this is because at the core pros and cons do not add any new perspective or value to the decision making. What you write down is probably what you already know, and you are writing stuff down because you want to know more as you are stuck. Writing down what you already know is not going to tell you anything new, and that is the problem.

By now you probably want to hear the alternative approach to the pros and cons. Instead write down possible options / solutions and in what situation they would work best. I will now provide a hypothetical example:

Requirements: My existing laptop does not have enough storage space and it has become noticeably slower. Get the latest Mac that will meet my requirements.

MacBook Air, best choice when:

  • Want to fit it into my backpack as I will need to do work on it outside of my house
  • Want to keep price of the purchase as low as possible
  • Type of work that I will be doing does not require large screen

MacBook Pro 13”, best choice when:

  • Want to fit it into my backpack as I will need to do work on it outside of my house
  • Type of work that I will be doing does not require large screen
  • Touch bar aids productivity and is worth the extra cost

MacBook Pro 16”, best choice when:

  • Touch bar aids productivity and is worth the extra cost
  • Need a large screen for the “split view” with good resolution to avoid the need of getting a standalone monitor
  • Need extra compute to run intensive tasks such as naive brute force deep learning algorithms
  • Price is no longer a constraint

Mac, best choice when:

  • There is space for a desktop computer in the office room
  • Family members will be allowed to use it, this might be economical long term as will not need to buy as many computers
  • Time-sharing with the family members will not be a problem
  • Need a large screen for the “split view”
  • Need a high-quality camera for online meetings

This analysis is not complete, in the real scenario I would expand on the requirements, provide price for each option and add technical specifications. However, this should give you a feel for this alternative method. What I get out of this method is the value that it adds by making you think through under what conditions certain solutions would work and what makes them stand out in the certain context.